Istanbul Canal’s Impacts on on Traffic and Transportation

As a result of Annex 38: Istanbul Canal Project Traffic Survey Report, provided as an annex to the EIA Report and prepared by Yüksel Project with the contribution of Artelia-MTSB in 2017, the following have been revealed:

The annual total marine traffic passing through the Bosporus, which was 56,886 in 2007, has started decreasing since that year. In 2018, it decreased to 43,121. Between 2006 and 2018, the annual marine traffic decreased by 24.2% in total. Approximately 20% of the total traffic consists of tankers carrying chemical cargo, gas, and fuel defined as hazardous materials. During this period, the average gross tons of ships increased by 77.5%, and the number of ships larger than 200 meters increased by 17.6%.

In the Traffic Survey Report, it is stated that it is impossible to use a stochastic (statistical) estimation model that requires long-term historical data in ship estimation since the data of marine traffic in the Bosporus is taken from a short period of 12 years between 2005-2016. Therefore, a scenario analysis based on the experience of MTSB experts conducting traffic forecasts was carried out. It is unclear to what extent the future regional and global economic growth predictions will happen and no study has been conducted on the occurrence probabilities of the scenarios examined. Considering the international agreements on ending the use of fossil fuels in the face of the climate crisis, expected decreases in oil reserves, Russia’s forwarding of oil exports from the Black Sea ports to the Baltic Sea ports, and existing and future pipeline projects that are an alternative to tanker transportation (mainly Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipeline, Russia-Turkey Natural Gas Pipeline, Mavi Akım gas pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum Natural Gas Pipeline – BTR and the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline Project – TANAP) “experience-based” estimations for the marine traffic in the Bosporus cannot be a basis for this project. There has also been a decrease in the number of marine accidents after 2010 with the new management technology and rules implemented for the management of marine traffic in the Bosporus and the introduction of one-way traffic.

The main transportation structures planned in the region within the scope of the Istanbul Canal Project are the Black Sea and Marmara Container Ports, Logistics Center, and Küçükçekmece Marina. A total of eight bridge crossings, one of which is a railway crossing, will be built on the Istanbul Canal. Four of these bridges are larger than the 15 July Martyrs Bridge, the others are close to the size of the existing Bosporus bridges. Additionally, three subway lines are planned: the Halkalı-Ispartakule-Edirne conventional railway and the Sefaköy-Beylikdüzü and Mahmutbey-Esenyurt subway lines.

The total investment cost of the Istanbul Canal Project is estimated to be approximately USD 21.06 billion. In the financial feasibility analysis of the project, the income to be obtained from real estate investments to be made as a result of the lands to be produced in the project area was predicted to be around USD 10.5 billion (half of the project cost). In conclusion, the Istanbul Canal Project is actually a real estate project designed to zone the open-air spaces of Istanbul, together with the Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge and Istanbul Airport, which are not included in the 1/100.000 Scale Landscape Map, which is considered to be the constitution of Istanbul.